Premium #332 – Paris 2017 – Lowering Expectations

The Paris Air Show begins next week, and expectations for commercial aircraft orders remain low, reflecting the end of the last super cycle and our entrance into what could be several years of book to bill ratios below one, as the industry catches up with a record backlog equivalent to seven years of production for the most popular narrow body aircraft.

While there is no reason for concern at this juncture, the investment community always feels better during growth periods than in periods that indicate future contraction.  Our view is that fewer orders will be a benefit, as it will give the beleaguered supply chain an opportunity to begin to catch their collective breaths and move forward more rationally.