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April 18, 2024
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[UPDATE – MITAC responded to our request for ferry information as follows: “The company policy allows us to give you details after the arrival at Moses Lake.”.  Meanwhile you try to track the aircraft from here. As you can see they turn off the tracking ability soon after takeoff.  Wonder why the secrecy?]

The Mitsubishi MRJ is trying to get to Moses Lake again. Currently the aircraft in Sapporo, the airport code of its location is CTS.  Take a look at the chart to see what the route looks like.

2016-09-26_16-30-11

It won’t be easy moving the aircraft across the Pacific.  The aircraft range is 2,120km.  If they add bladders, the range will increase.  It’s not clear if they have added bladder tanks.

What is clear is that from CTS, Mitsubishi will have to arrange tech stops in Russia.  This looks like it has to be in the southern Kamchatka (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky) peninsula and then in the north (Ugolny Airport).  There are not likely to be many choices.  The map has some huge gaps – each circle is 2,000km.

We took a look at what might work, and this is what we estimate – it will take a lot of stops. Each circle is 2,000km.  With a new aircraft, especially one that has had some challenges so far, they cannot assume too much risk.

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The first leg from CTS-PKC is long and over water.  From PKC-DYR (second Russian stop) does not look like as much of a stretch as the first leg.  DYR-ANC is another long over water leg.  Once in Alaska, the aircraft will need one more stop to reach Moses Lake, perhaps in Sitka.

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This is what we estimate the ferry flight might look like starting in Nagoya and ending in Moses Lake. It has legs that, absent bladders, allows for a route well within the aircraft’s range.

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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