Archive For The “Fokker” Category
We assembled this table from their announcements in Singapore to see how comparable their views are.
- As usual, the definitions are not quite the same. Bombardier excludes “Greater China”.
- The seat segments top out at the same number, but it’s not clear where Embraer starts their segment though one might expect at 76 to include the E175.
- Embraer sees a market 47% larger than Bombardier. But, if Bombardier were to include China their number would be higher. China is clearly a focus for Bombardier as they frequently talk about CAAC’s Rule 96.
- As a consequence of excluding China, we can see why Bombardier uses 16% as opposed to Embraer’s 29%.
- Note Bombardier forecasts a larger market in 20 years than does Embraer.
- Both Bombardier and Embraer see potential across the region connecting communities to hubs and other smaller communities.
- Bombardier is slightly more specific in its forecast.
As of 3Q17, there were 7,674 aircraft in service across the Asia/Pacific region. Breaking out the fleet into regional and single aisles we get this table.
Both Bombardier and Embraer are correct in seeing lots of fleet renewal opportunities. If we grant each company a preference in the renewal of their own fleets, we see there were only 43 regional jets to chase. Useful, but not exciting. Among single ailses, we have much more opportunity. This is principally because of the aging small Airbus and Boeing jets.
Airbus had 244 A319s that might be a shoo-in for the C Series if Airbus muscles customers to stay “on-side” when they come up for replacement. Boeing had 20 717s that Delta had not snatched. There were 737 Classics ripe for replacement. The 700NGs, like the A319s, were too new to replace. There were 28 MD-80s aging fast that need replacement plus 63 Fokkers. The Embraer fleet was very young at under five years on average.
All told there appeared to be ~5,000 single aisles and under 200 regional jets to pitch for over the next 20 years. If we throw in a growth factor – Asia is growing faster than any other air travel market – those numbers are bound to be much higher. That makes the Bombardier and Embraer forecasts look plausible.
The largest growth markets are going to be China and India. Both suffer from state imposed limits that curtail OEM ambitions. India lacks runways and other infrastructure. But that could be fixed over 20 years. China as a tightly controlled commercial aviation industry and its evolving Rule 96 limits new airline growth.
In summary, in the next five years, we see opportunities for about 150 single aisles and 41 regional jets. The Asian air travel market has grown fast and its fleet tends to be young. While the twenty-year forecast looks reasonable, replacements are going to be backloaded.
Bombardier and Embraer need to focus on new startups and adding smaller aircraft to current airline fleets. Current airlines need light aircraft to reach out across thin routes (as stated by Bombardier above) to feed their networks. Fortunately, Bombardier and Embraer do not need to fear any outside (i.e. local) competition for at least a decade.
Turboprops have had a good year in 2017. We take a look at the market and provide some insights to be found in the data.
The turboprop market is big but not as exciting, perhaps, as the single-aisle market. We can see that the number of parked aircraft has risen from about 9% of the fleet to over 16%. Does this indicate something odd going on?
Reviewing the parked aircraft we find that they average over 20 years old. Because of OEM changes, there is another pattern: parked aircraft reflect the state of the OEM’s fleet. BAe, Embraer, Fairchild/Dornier, Fokker, and SAAB are all out of this market. Moreover, the number of parked aircraft vary by world region.
Looking at the more recent history, we can see how the departure from the market has impacted the in-service fleet. Turboprops, despite being workhorses, don’t die easily. In 2015 the in-service fleet average age was 19.7 years and as of 3Q17, the in-service fleet averaged 19 years.
Taking a look at the in-service fleet as of 3Q17, we find the following.
Asia/Pacific and the EU are the primary markets for turboprops. North America (combining Canada and the USA) creates the third biggest market. The CIS and the Middle East do not look like promising places to trade. (Which begs a question about the GE and UEC deal, doesn’t it?) Africa and Latin America look promising though.
These could be exciting times for OEMs though. The table lists in-service aircraft. The light blue columns show models no longer in production. Eventually, even these need to be parked and replaced.
Is there any surprise that Embraer is pondering a comeback? Looking at the wide range of aircraft sizes that fall into this market, it would seem the focus on 90-seaters may not be the best place to look. There are literally hundreds (about 43% of the market) of 30-50 seaters that need replacing, and you do not need to make as tough a business case as you do with 90-seaters.
The 100 seat aircraft market is undergoing a transition, as Sukoi, Embraer and Bombardier all have new aircraft available in that size category. At the same time, several aircraft types are aging dramatically or economically challenged that need replacement. And when new aircraft meet operator needs, sales should occur. What have we seen and what can we expect from this market?
The replacement aircraft candidates include the A318 from Airbus, the 737-600 and 717-200 from Boeing, the Fokker 100, and the BAe146/Avro RJ family. At the end of the second quarter 2017, there were 657 aircraft from these models still in service, with an average age of 21.5 years. Clearly, replacements will soon be in the works.
The table below shows that 516 aircraft are flown by the 47 carriers with a fleet size of 4 or more aircraft.
Seventeen airlines have a fleet of 10 or more aircraft in this category that need replacement and account for 359 of those aircraft. These are clearly the priority targets for the OEMs. In examining the fleets of these airlines, many have already made their new aircraft selection while others are likely to invite competition over the next year or two.
Management running marketing for the three OEMs no doubt have sales teams focused on Australia and Iran, each of which has substantial opportunities for fleet renewal. Let’s look at the largest carriers and opportunities.
Delta Air Lines is the 900-pound gorilla of this group, with 91 Boeing 717-200s, which it has already decided to replace with the Bombardier C Series, for which it has ordered 75 plus 50 options.
Next in size is Cobham Aviation in Australia with 20 717s and 10 BAe/Avro RJs that will need replacement. While its 717s are nearly 15 years old, the remaining aircraft average over 23 years old and will soon be in need of a replacement. This could be a two-tranche order for 10 in the next year or so, plus another 20 five to ten years later. We would suspect that Macquarie Leasing in Australia has targeted these folks as a potential customer for their C Series positions.
Hawaiian Air is next in size, with 20 Boeing 717s. The carrier is apparently quite satisfied with the aircraft, which average 14.4 years of age, and should remain in the fleet for 6-8 more years before replacement. Hawaiian moves to the back burner.
Air France operates 18 A318s. With the Airbus acquisition of the C Series, there is an opportunity to replace these less efficient aircraft, but they average only 12 years of age. This also looks like a 6-8 year opportunity.
Alliance Airlines in Australia, a Virgin Australia feeder, operates 18 Fokker 100s that average 26.1 years of age. These aircraft will be due for replacement quite soon, and present another in country opportunity for Macquarie Leasing.
Avianca Brazil operates both A318s and Fokker 100s. While the 12 A318s are young, at 9.3 years on average, the 6 Fokker 100s average 25.3 years of age and need replacement. This looks like another potential two tranche order scenario with 6 now and 12 later. Geographically, we would expect Embraer to have the inside track. But Avianca is a loyal Airbus customer, potentially giving the C Series a chance.
SAS operates 18 737-600s. Those aircraft average 18.4 years of age, and will soon be replaced by A320neos beginning in 2019. Might SAS decide that smaller airliners are still needed in its regional network?
Iran Aseman operates 17 Fokker 100s that average 23.7 years of age and needs replacement. While economic sanctions have been lifted for aircraft, the threat of a potential reinstatement looms for Iranian airlines, whose access to key aviation capital remains politically restricted. There is a strong opportunity here for Sukhoi should the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine that powers the E2 and C Series become subject to additional sanctions. Iran overall offers big opportunities because its fleet is so old.
Network Aviation operates a fleet of 17 Fokker 100s as a Qantas regional subsidiary based in Perth. With a fleet averaging 24.4 years of age, fleet replacement is likely in the near future as the Fokker 100s become increasingly uneconomic. Another Macquarie opportunity?
Volotea Airlines, a Spanish low-cost airline operates a fleet of 17 717s that average 13.8 years old. This appears to be an opportunity five to eight years from now, as the fleet remains young and fuel prices remain low.
Mahan Air in Iran operates a fleet of 16 BAe and AvroRJs that average 23.6 years old. These are candidates for replacement, pending political sanctions on capital and aircraft transactions. As mentioned, Iran is a big opportunity.
Citijet, based in Ireland, offers code-share and wet lease services to several major airlines in Europe. It operates 15Avro RJs that are scheduled for replacement by Sukhoi Superjets over the next 2-3 years.
Iran Air operates 15 Fokker 100s that average 24.1 years of age, and will soon be candidates for replacement, pending financial and aircraft sanctions. The airlines in Iran represent a significant potential, as their fleets are quite old and need rapid replacement.
Virgin Australia Regional, formerly Skywest, operates 14 Fokker 100s that average 24.6 years of age, and will soon be due for replacement. Another Macquarie opportunity?
WestJet, a Canadian low-cost carrier, operates an all-Boeing fleet including 13 Boeing 737-600 models that average 11.5 years of age. While these aircraft are economically inefficient compared to new technology, WestJet’s focus on commonality and a single aircraft type will be difficult to break. Nonetheless, there may be increasing political pressure in Canada with respect to their replacement in five to 10 years. Boeing has nothing to offer in the size, as Delta has pointed out. Meanwhile, the airline is now a Bombardier customer as it operates Q400s.
Braathens Regional, a Swedish regional carrier, operates 12 AvroRJs averaging 22 years of age and has selected the Bombardier C Series as a replacement, with 10 CS100s on order, with 10 options, to replace them. But there seems to be no rush to take deliveries.
Avianca, based in Colombia, operates 10 A318s that average 12.5 years of age. The Avianca-TACA group will likely order the same aircraft type for multiple operations, and currently are strong Airbus operators with A320 family aircraft. Avianca currently operates 12 Embraer E190 aircraft, and given its Latin American geography, we believe the E190-E2 has a potential advantage when the A318s need replacement during the next decade. As pointed out above this will be a classic Bombardier vs Embraer tussle.
Are there some quick wins for Embraer, Bombardier, and Sukhoi, all of whom could use additional orders to boost their programs? We believe so, and that Australia and Iran offer the quickest opportunity for success. Economic sanctions in Iran could benefit Sukhoi, while the competition in Australia is wide open.
Last Saturday, October 28, KLM performed its final commercial passenger service operated by a Fokker aircraft. This ended a 97-year association with Fokker.
The airline’s last six inbound F70s arrived in Amsterdam from Dusseldorf, Norwich, Hannover, Brussels, Luxembourg and London Heathrow in the space of a one-hour period.
The final passenger F70 departure/arrival, KL1070, took place between London Heathrow and Schiphol. This was carefully planned because KLM’s first passenger service using Fokkers operated to/from London in 1920.
For the many avgeeks who traveled to witness the event were rewarded with a near one-hour flight in a specially painted aircraft – PH-KZU – which carried a portrait of the aviation pioneer Anthony Fokker on its tail and the words “Fokker – Thank you” on its fuselage.
Here’s a video of the time when KLM ended use of the Fokker 50.